Sea level rise and coastal hazards are putting human and natural communities along the coasts at greater risk than ever.
PlaNYC
The New York city Panel on Climate Change was convened by Mayor Michael Bloomberg to advise him on issues related to climate change in the City of New York. The panel recently issued a report, entitled Climate Risk Information, that summarizes the risks posed by climate change for New York City, based on the most recent scientific information. Among the key findings of the report are:
Warmer temperatures are extremely likely in New York City and the surrounding region. Mean annual temperatures are projected by global climate models (GCMs) to increase by:
• 1.5 – 3oF by the 2020s
• 3 – 5oF by the 2050s
• 4 – 7.5oF by the 2080s
There is universal agreement among the GCMs that temperatures will increase over the next century. Total annual precipitation in New York City and the surrounding region will more likely than not increase. Mean annual precipitation increases projected by GCMs are:
• 0 – 5% by the 2020s
• 0 – 10% by the 2050s
• 5 – 10% by the 2080s
The GCMs are in less agreement about the direction of precipitation change, and precipitation is characterized by large inter-annual variability, making these projections more uncertain than those for temperature. Rising sea levels are extremely likely. GCM-based projections for mean annual sea level rise in New York City are:
• 2 – 5 inches by the 2020s
• 7 – 12 inches by the 2050s
• 12 – 23 inches by the 2080s
Because GCMs do not capture all of the processes which may contribute to sea level rise, an alternative method that incorporates observed and longer-term historical ice-melt rates is also included. This “rapid ice-melt” approach suggests sea level could rise by approximately 41 to 55 inches by the 2080s. Short-duration climate hazards can pose particular threats to infrastructure. Among these extreme events:
• Heat waves are very likely to become more frequent, intense, and longer in duration
• Brief, intense precipitation events that can cause inland flooding are also likely to increase
• Storm-related coastal flooding due to sea level rise is very likely to increase
• It is more likely than not that droughts will become more severe
Sea Level Rise Task Force
The Sea Level Rise Task Force was created in 2007 by the New York State Legislature, to assess impacts to the state's coastlines from rising seas and recommend protective and adaptive measures. The task force held its first meeting on June 27, 2008; its report is due to the Legislature by December 31, 2009.
